BON VOYAGE, MAJESTEIT!/Document 3

by Willem Oltmans

      DOCUMENT 3
      DDRS 1981:274C

 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

      26 January 1965

 SUBJECT: Principal problems and Prospects in Indonesia

 SUMMARY

We are now faced not only with known and growing danger from Sukarno,
but with the uncertainties of possible Indonesia without Sukarno.  If
this ailing dictator abould indeed die in the near future, his bequart
to Indonesia would be international outlawry, economic near-chaos, and
to Communist domination.  'Yet if Sukarno lives on for acces time to
the chance of the Communist Party (PKI) to assume power will probably
continue to improve.  We do not believe that a Communist Indonesia is
imminent, or that Sukarno will initiate war.  In our view however,
there is sufficient chaos of such developments over the next year or
two warrant especial intelligence and planning attention.

The beginnings of a scramble for succession to Sukarno are already
evident.  Should Sukarno leave the ------- in the near future, we
believe that the initial struggle to replace him would be won by Army
and non-Communist.  --------- ; though Communists would continue to
play an important role.  Such a governement would probably continue to
be anti-US ----------- , and a threat to peace.  Furthermore, unless
the non-Communist leaders displayed more back -----------,
effectiveness, and -------- than they have to date the charces of
eventual PKI ----------- of Indonesia would quickly mount.


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